Less than a year after Gianni Infantino took over as FIFA president, the organization revealed plans to expand the men’s World Cup from 32 to 48 teams. Reactions were varied. Diego Maradona expressed his excitement, stating that this change allowed every country to aspire to reach the tournament, reigniting their passion for football. Conversely, Joachim Löw, then coach of the German national team, expressed concerns, asserting, “delighted by Gianni’s initiative”
Reflecting on the inaugural 48-team tournament, which concluded with Spain as champions after 104 matches in North America, it is evident that both Maradona and Löw had valid points.
Infantino emphasized inclusivity, asserting, “I don’t think it’s a good idea to dilute the sporting value … In the long term, the quality suffers.” during the announcement of the 48-team format in 2017. The 2026 World Cup showcased this diversity, benefitting Africa and Asia the most with increased qualifying spots, while all four debuting nations made their mark. Livano Comenencia’s equalizer for Curaçao against Germany stood out as a group-stage highlight, and Cape Verde emerged as the tournament’s underdog, despite not winning any matches.
Increased Disparities
The expanded format highlighted the widening gap between teams in the group stages. In the last 32-team tournament in Qatar, Brazil’s match against Ghana was the largest mismatch, featuring a 60-place difference in their world rankings. This time around, five group matches had disparities exceeding 65 places. While some matches, like England’s 0-0 draw with Ghana and Spain’s scoreless tie with Cape Verde, were competitive, the major teams faced little threat of an upset or early exit, unlike the shocking group stage failures of Spain in 2014 or Germany in 2018. Uruguay was the only significant team to exit early.
In comparison, Costa Rica recorded the worst goal difference in 2022 at -8, while five teams in 2026 either matched or fared worse. Iraq (-11) stood out as the weakest team in Group I, which was the closest approximation to a group of death given the presence of France, Norway, and Senegal, all of whom advanced as expected. Despite the less thrilling group stage, star players like Kylian Mbappé and Lionel Messi capitalized on the opportunity to build momentum in the race for the Golden Boot.
Issues with the Third-Place System
Following the intense drama of the 2022 group stage, where only two teams were effectively eliminated before the final matchday, FIFA decided to maintain the four-team group format for the expanded 48-team setup. This allowed eight third-place teams to progress to the knockout stage. However, this decision did not entirely eliminate concerns about potential collusion between teams, nor did it address the competitive advantage held by teams playing later and knowing what results were necessary for advancement.
The knockout stage pairings could change dramatically in the final moments. When Riyad Mahrez scored to put Algeria ahead 3-2 against Austria in the last minute of Group J, it appeared they would qualify as runners-up to face Spain in the knockout stage. But a late equalizer in the 96th minute altered their fate, leading them to face Switzerland instead. Teams like Scotland, finishing third, had to wait several days to learn their fate, ultimately discovering they were going home.
With the change from goal difference to head-to-head records as a tiebreaker, five teams (roughly 10%) were eliminated before their final group matches, making the third-place system seem deceptive, as it suggested that everything was still at stake.
Future of Expansion: What’s Next?
Infantino once more underscored the need to organize the World Cup “Football is more than Europe and South America; football is global,” while hinting at a potential expansion to 64 teams. Expanding by an additional 16 nations, but only adding 24 more matches, could be a logical next step for FIFA, especially if it intends to eliminate the third-place system and revert to a format where the top two teams advance. This change would introduce an element of risk, although it would likely exacerbate existing disparities within the groups.
Countries like New Caledonia (ranked 151) and Indonesia (118) participated in the later stages of qualifying for 2026 and could benefit from higher quotas. However, questions arise about how they would match up against powerhouses like Spain or Argentina. Moreover, with the top 16 teams all placed in one pot, fans may miss out on thrilling group matchups that were scarce this time around; for instance, an entertaining England 4-2 victory over Croatia would be unlikely in a 64-team setup.
Logistical challenges also loom, particularly with the potential for four matches a day over a three-week group stage, many of which would be played in the oppressive summer heat of Spain, Portugal, and Morocco. Out of 23 proposed venues, only the renovated Bernabéu and Camp Nou have roofs. Further discussions regarding expansion will undoubtedly be a hot topic in the months ahead.
