Argentina’s defense has shown signs of vulnerability this World Cup, failing to establish a reputation befitting of reigning champions. They have conceded five goals collectively to teams like Cape Verde, Egypt, and Jordan, with clean sheets only against Algeria and Austria.
The ease with which lesser-known teams have penetrated Lionel Scaloni’s defense should instill confidence in England’s Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane. However, Argentina’s defensive metrics tell a different story; their average of 0.52 expected goals conceded per 90 minutes ranks only behind Spain’s 0.31 among all 48 teams participating.
Having faced the weakest opponents based on the average FIFA ranking of the four semi-finalists, Argentina should have limited the number of chances against them. Nonetheless, they have excelled in managing where these chances arise. Only Uruguay has allowed a greater percentage of shots from outside their penalty area (56%); Colombia matches Argentina at 52%, while Ecuador follows at 45%. This defensive trend has been a hallmark of South American teams throughout this World Cup.
Close-Range Shooting Opportunities
Argentina shares a notable statistic with Ecuador, as both teams have yet to concede a shot from within their six-yard box. Success in this critical area is determined by a specific line on the pitch. For instance, Deroy Duarte’s goal for Cape Verde against Argentina came from just outside the six-yard box, and Dan Ndoye netted for Switzerland from a similar position during the quarter-finals. The statistics highlight the significance of this distinction, as shots taken from within the six-yard box have a conversion rate of 27.1%, nearly double that of attempts from elsewhere in the penalty area at 13.7%.
England has not excelled in close-range scoring, having only nine shots from inside the six-yard box, fewer than teams like Canada (12), Ecuador (11), and Norway (10), not to mention Spain (14) or Argentina (10). Nevertheless, they can leverage set pieces to put additional pressure on the defending champions. Argentina has allowed just 0.63 expected goals from set plays, with only Cape Verde managing more than three corners against them.
Utilizing Set Pieces Effectively
England has effectively capitalized on set pieces, creating five close-range opportunities from them. All three shots taken in Croatia’s six-yard box resulted from corner situations, with similar chances arising against Ghana and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Additionally, Bellingham scored twice from less than six yards out during open play against Mexico.
While Argentina may be prepared for the various threats posed by England in Atlanta, the English team’s ability to pinpoint shot locations that they have yet to defend could be a game-changer.
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