Henry Conroy poses an intriguing question.
“The top four teams in the Fifa rankings are also the four semi-finalists at the World Cup,”
Throughout the course of the World Cup, the men’s FIFA rankings have been updated after each match; however, FIFA missed a chance for the iconic Martin Tyler to announce, “Has this happened before?” Despite fluctuations in the rankings during the tournament, the four teams that reached the semi-finals remained unchanged from the tournament’s outset.
This distinguished quartet benefited from FIFA’s new seeding system, yet their success was not a foregone conclusion: Spain triumphed over the fifth and ninth-ranked teams, Portugal and Belgium, respectively, while France dispatched the seventh-ranked Morocco. England’s most notable knockout victory came against Mexico, currently ranked 14th, while Argentina faced their biggest challenge against 19th-ranked Switzerland.
Established in 1993, the FIFA men’s rankings have only accounted for the last nine World Cups. In the previous eight tournaments, no semi-finals featured more than two of the top four teams from the outset.
It’s essential to recognize that earlier rankings were quite rudimentary; for instance, France was ranked 18th and the Netherlands 25th leading into the 1998 semi-finals.
This year’s semi-finalists collectively achieved a FIFA ranking of 10, the lowest possible unless two teams tie for third place. Historically, the best combined ranking in the men’s tournament was 25, noted in 2014:
- Brazil (3) vs. Germany (2)
- Netherlands (15) vs. Argentina (5)
The highest combined ranking of 75 occurred in 2002, a tournament known for its surprises. Only one of the top four teams made it past the group stage: France and Argentina were both eliminated, and Colombia did not qualify. Their high rankings had primarily resulted from Colombia winning the 2001 Copa América.
Here are the semi-finalists from 2002:
- Germany (11) vs. South Korea (40)
- Brazil (2) vs. Turkey (22)
Brazil upheld the integrity of the FIFA rankings and subsequently won the tournament. Four years later, for the first time, none of the top four teams reached the semi-finals. If you can name that top four, you might have a knack for trivia. They were ranked as follows: Brazil, Czech Republic, Netherlands, and Mexico. The semi-finals in 2006 saw a notable clash between two teams that were outside the top ten.
- Germany (19) vs. Italy (13)
- Portugal (7) vs. France (8)
FIFA did not start implementing rankings for women’s football until after the 1999 World Cup, thus covering the last five tournaments. Typically, these tournaments have been dominated by higher-ranked teams, with no semi-finalists emerging from outside the top ten. The weakest semi-final lineup, in terms of rankings, had a combined total of 23, which occurred in 2023:
- Spain (6) vs. Sweden (3)
- Australia (10) vs. England (4)
On two occasions, in 2007 and 2015, the semi-finals featured three of the top four teams. The 2015 Women’s World Cup recorded a combined ranking of only 13, with France (ranked 3rd) and Sweden (ranked 5th) being the only two teams outside the top six.
- United States (2) vs. Germany (1)
- Japan (4) vs. England (6)
You Win Some, You Lose Some
Dirk Maas brings attention to a curious phenomenon.
“Sweden’s 5-1 victory against Tunisia was followed by a 5-1 defeat against Netherlands,”
Chris Roe was quick to respond, recounting a more positive turnaround during the 2006 World Cup. “Are there more examples of stunning World Cup wins followed by heavy defeats with the similar scoreline, or vice versa?” Despite their heavy opening loss in Leipzig, Ukraine managed to advance from Group H by narrowly defeating Tunisia, ultimately progressing further in the tournament than Spain, reaching the quarter-finals before falling to Italy.
Jeremy Simmonds pointed out an interesting case from Group 2 in the 1954 finals, which was recently mentioned in a query about debut wins. Turkey overwhelmed South Korea with a commanding 7-0 victory in Geneva, while West Germany faced a devastating loss to Hungary, losing 8-3 in Basel. A playoff was subsequently needed to determine which team would join the Magical Magyars in the quarter-finals.
“Ukraine lost 4-0 to Spain, and then beat Saudi Arabia by the same score in their next group game.” Jeremy notes. “West Germany rebounded from a five-goal defeat, beating Turkey by a five-goal margin (7-2),”
Ageless Record-Breakers
“They went all the way to the final, where they exacted revenge on Hungary, winning 3-2 in Berne.”
Paul Gage posed this question.
Dean Whearty has a suggestion that may not be surprising. “Lionel Messi is Argentina’s youngest and oldest goalscorer – has any other footballer achieved this accolade or is likely to in the future?”
Knowledge Archive
Will Sturgeon asked back in 2002, “This summer, Cristiano Ronaldo became Portugal’s oldest World Cup scorer at the age of 41. He also netted against Iran back in 2006 to become his country’s youngest World Cup scorer – a record which amazingly still stands to this day.”
The quick answer back then was: yes. France and the Netherlands have also been eliminated from World Cups by the eventual winners on four occasions, while Brazil has faced this unfortunate fate five times. Germany has experienced this four times – all in finals – if results recorded as West Germany are included.
Brazil (5): Italy (1938, semi-final), Uruguay (1950, final game); Argentina (1978, second group stage); Italy (1982, second group stage); France (1998, final).
France (4): Italy (1938, second round); Brazil (1958, semi-finals); England (1966, group stage); Argentina (1978, group stage).
Netherlands (4): West Germany (1974, final); Argentina (1978, final); West Germany (1990, last 16); Brazil (1994, quarter-final).
Germany (4): England (1966, final); Italy (1982, final); Argentina (1986, final); Brazil (2002, final).
2026 update: In 2006, Italy triumphed over Germany in the semi-finals and later defeated France in the final, adding to their tallies. Four years later, Spain overcame the Netherlands in the 2010 final and Germany in the semi-finals, while in 2014, Germany eliminated France in the quarter-finals before a lopsided semi-final victory against Brazil.
In 2018, France did not eliminate any of the aforementioned teams but faced defeat in the 2022 final against Argentina, who also eliminated the Netherlands in the quarter-finals. According to our calculations, France has now been knocked out by the eventual champions seven times, surpassing Brazil, Germany, and the Netherlands, each with six.
However, Argentina has emerged as another contender. The Albiceleste have lost in three finals – 1930, 1990, and 2014 – and were eliminated in the group stage in 1958 by West Germany. They also faced defeat to England in the 1966 quarter-finals and joined Brazil in the three-team group topped by Italy in 1982.
Ultimately, Argentina lost 4-3 to eventual winners France in the last 16 of the 2018 tournament, now tying them with seven. If France and Argentina meet in this year’s final, then the loser will take the outright lead as a consolation prize.
Can You Help?
Matthew Wilkie notes, “Has any team been knocked out of the World Cup by the eventual winners more times than England?” [We’re also interested in examples beyond the main tournament, if you have them.]
Mike Frost writes, “I can think of four times this has happened: Brazil in 2002, West Germany in 1990, Argentina in 1986 and Brazil again in 1962. Is anybody else as unlucky as us?”
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