The World Cup has advanced to the quarter-finals, with France, Spain, Argentina, and England emerging as the favorites to proceed to the semi-finals, based on statistical analysis from Opta. Each of the remaining eight teams showcases positive performance indicators from the tournament thus far.
France
Successful carries that ended with shots: 33
The skill with which the French national team maneuvers past their adversaries is remarkable. According to Opta, ball carries of at least five meters are recorded, along with details on whether the player concluded their run with a shot or an opportunity created. Among the nine players who have accomplished at least four productive carries of both kinds are Ousmane Dembélé, Désiré Doué, Kylian Mbappé, and Michael Olise, with Bradley Barcola just one chance-creating pass away from joining their ranks.
Morocco
Sprints per kilometer covered: 0.75
Morocco leads the remaining teams in terms of total sprints. Although they have played an extra half-hour compared to some other teams, the likelihood of extensive sprinting during extra time is minimal.
When each team’s sprint count is divided by the total distance they’ve covered, Morocco emerges with the highest average, indicating their intense running effort. Competing in air-conditioned stadiums for two of their matches may have contributed to their physical resilience, which will be crucial against France.
Spain
Expected goals conceded: 1.49
Spain’s average possession closely mirrors their performance during Euro 2012. Despite being less conservative than their predecessors from 14 years ago, their control of the ball has allowed them to maintain a similarly robust defense.
For context, Norway has conceded at least 1.49 expected goals in four out of their five matches, underscoring Spain’s defensive strength.
Belgium
High turnovers leading to shots: 15
Opta’s high-turnover metric tracks when a team initiates an open-play possession sequence within 40 meters of the opponent’s goal. While Spain currently leads this statistic with 50, Belgium follows closely with 41.
Belgium stands out for having the highest number of high turnovers that resulted in shots (15), alongside scoring four goals from such situations. This edge could prompt Spain’s defense to make unexpected mistakes.
Norway
Average expected goals per shot: 0.17
Norway embraces the philosophy of quality over quantity. They have taken only four more shots than Cape Verde despite playing an additional match, yet the quality of their chances, as reflected in expected goals, is superior to any other team in the tournament.
Although five matches provide a limited sample size, Norway’s non-penalty expected goals per shot average (0.17) surpasses any team’s performance in Europe’s top five leagues last season.
England
England delivered a powerful offensive display against Mexico, registering six shots with five on target, ultimately scoring three times. Their goals, consisting of two tap-ins and a penalty, were classified by Opta as big chances, which are defined as situations where “a player should reasonably be expected to score”
Previously less efficient in converting such opportunities, England now boasts the highest number of these critical chances among all teams.
Argentina
Goals from counterattacks, set pieces, and penalties: 7
Argentina stands as one of the joint top scorers with 14 goals, distinguished by their diverse attacking strategies. No other team has matched their scoring frequency outside of what Opta categorizes as regular play, allowing the defending champions to overwhelm opponents in various manners.
They netted two counterattacking goals against Austria, scored two from free kicks in their victory over Jordan, and added two via corners against Cape Verde. Remarkably, they can afford for Lionel Messi to miss penalties.
Switzerland
Direct speed: 1.77 meters per second
Switzerland may not appear to be a fast-paced attacking team at first glance, and by the standards of the tournament’s 48 teams, they rank lower. However, Opta’s direct speed metric, which gauges the average speed of ball movement towards the opponent’s goal during sequences, places them as the fastest among the quarter-finalists.
With Argentina likely to dominate possession, Switzerland will need to capitalize on their chances when they arise.
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