The initial round of matches in the World Cup has concluded, showcasing all 48 teams. But what insights can we glean from these encounters? Who shone, who faltered, and who was left wanting after just one game? A closer examination of the Opta data reveals some intriguing statistics that might have gone unnoticed amidst the action.
Mexico 2–0 South Africa
Mexico exhibited the slowest ball movement among all teams, taking their time as South Africa posed minimal threat. It is a worrying sign when a team’s red card count matches their touches in the opponent’s penalty area, a scenario that unfolded for the losing side.
South Korea 2–1 Czechia
This match marked the debut of a defining feature of the 2025-26 Premier League season. Former West Ham defender Vladimir Coufal executed a long throw-in, which Wolves center-back Ladislav Krejci headed into the net to give Czechia an early lead. However, South Korea emerged as deserving victors, with Hwang In-beom’s equalizer resulting from a remarkable 25-pass buildup, ranking it as the joint-fifth longest passing sequence leading to a goal in World Cup history since 1966.
In comparison, Czechia’s effectiveness from set plays appeared lacking when juxtaposed with Bosnia and Herzegovina’s capabilities. They managed just one open play chance per match, a statistic that coach Sergej Barbarez will need to improve upon. Hopefully, their upcoming opponents will be as ineffective as Canada was.
United States 4–1 Paraguay
Pre-match predictions from Opta Analyst indicated this fixture would be one of the closest. However, the USA defied expectations. Paraguay, despite conceding few goals during the South American qualifiers, allowed their hosts 53 touches within their penalty area, the second-highest tally after Curaçao’s encounter with Germany.
Qatar 1–1 Switzerland
Australia 2–0 Turkey
Spain 0–0 Cape Verde
Saudi Arabia 1–1 Uruguay
Portugal 1–1 DR Congo
These matches are grouped together as their favored teams all failed to secure victories for similar reasons. Portugal, Spain, Switzerland, Turkey, and Uruguay rank among the top five teams for possession and accuracy in final-third passes. They maintained possession in advantageous areas, and aside from Portugal, each generated at least 25 shots.
The crux of the issue lay in the quality of their attempts. A seemingly respectable expected goals total diminishes when spread across numerous low-probability long-range shots. Spain averaged just 0.08 xG per shot, with Uruguay (0.06) and Turkey (0.04) trailing behind. Notably, these figures fall short of the averages recorded by Burnley and Wolves in the current Premier League season (0.09), teams that few aspire to replicate.
The so-called underdogs displayed a level of defensive resilience that was often missing in previous tournaments. This is a warning for the traditional powerhouses.
Brazil 1–1 Morocco
This match encapsulated what we might anticipate from Brazil moving forward. While their midfield appeared vulnerable, as evidenced by Morocco’s goal, getting the ball to Vinícius Júnior is likely to yield positive outcomes for them.
Kudos are due to Carlo Ancelotti, whose tactical adjustments at halftime ensured Morocco did not register a shot from the break until the 98th minute.
Haiti 0–1 Scotland
With nine draws already recorded, this World Cup has seen the highest proportion of ties during this phase of the tournament, despite its expanded format. Whether this is a consequence of a bloated competition with diminished stakes for many teams remains to be seen.
This particular match could have easily ended in a draw, with expected goals statistics showing an exact tie at 1.05 for both sides.
Germany 7–1 Curaçao
Data from Transfermarkt indicates that the German starting XI was valued at €559.4m (£485m) more than their Curaçao counterparts. Opta provided the four-time champions a staggering 90.7% chance of victory in this encounter.
Netherlands 2–2 Japan
The Netherlands raised their expected goals tally by 1.38 according to Opta’s post-shot model, the highest of any team. Japan, meanwhile, recorded 19 touches in the opposition’s penalty area yet had the lowest expected goals (xG) tally of any team that managed to score at least twice.
Ghana 1–0 Panama
These matches concluded with either elation or heartbreak, depending on one’s perspective. Ecuador struck the post three times, while Panama squandered two significant opportunities defined by Opta. Data suggested a draw was a fair outcome as the match approached its conclusion.
However, Amad Diallo and Caleb Yirenkyi dashed those hopes with late winners for their respective teams.
Sweden 5–1 Tunisia
This result may suggest Sweden is back on course following a disappointing qualification campaign. However, this impression is undermined by Graham Potter’s side overachieving against their expected goals figures by 3.67, the highest of any team.
It appears that the Tunisian Football Federation did not heed expected goal outliers, as they dismissed Sabri Lamouchi following this match. It may take more than Hervé Renard to turn their fortunes around.
Belgium 1–1 Egypt
This match highlighted the significance of capitalizing on opportunities. With a 1-0 lead early in the second half, Mohamed Salah’s header was saved, and the goalscorer, Emam Ashour, blasted the rebound out for a throw-in. Shortly after, Omar Marmoush missed a counterattack opportunity.
Enter Romelu Lukaku, who came on in the 66th minute, promptly forced an equalizing own goal, while Egypt managed only three low-quality chances from that point onward.
Iran 2–2 New Zealand
Iran fielded the joint second-oldest starting XI in World Cup history, averaging 31.8 years old. Fans of football history may recall the German team from 1998, which was older and defeated Iran 2-0.
Despite their age, this match was among the most entertaining. Iran were somewhat unfortunate to face New Zealand’s Chris Wood and Elijah Just, who linked up for two goals, marking them as the only duo to achieve such a feat.
France 3–1 Senegal
France delivered a match characterized by contrasting halves. Their performance in the first 45 minutes indicated they might fall into the “big team with lots of the ball fail to win” category. However, brilliant defense-splitting passes from Michael Olise and Adrien Rabiot changed that narrative.
Interestingly, six Premier League teams did not achieve more than two through-ball assists throughout the entire season, while France managed two within just a 16-minute span.
Iraq 1–4 Norway
Iraq displayed resilience until defensive lapses allowed Norway to regain the lead. Erling Haaland currently leads the World Cup in individual expected goals, significantly aided by a blunder from goalkeeper Jalal Hassan.
Argentina 3–0 Algeria
A surprising statistic from the first wave of fixtures is that Algeria recorded more touches in the opponent’s penalty area than Argentina, limiting the defending champions to just 12. However, they were the only team to not register a shot on target, and when Lionel Messi is at his best, data often takes a backseat.
Austria 3–1 Jordan
Both teams had eleven shots with four on target. The difference lay in opportunities classified by Opta as significant chances—where a goal is reasonably expected. Austria led this metric 4-0 and also benefitted from an own goal.
England 4–2 Croatia
England recorded seven significant chances, the highest of any team. It was hardly surprising that four of these opportunities arose from set pieces, as they had more shots from dead-ball situations than in open play. Harry Kane’s two goals propelled him into the ranks of the highest goalscorers in World Cup history, and he is likely to break into the top 10 before the group stage concludes.
Uzbekistan 1–3 Colombia
Lastly, we saw a fairly routine win for Colombia. Uzbekistan’s expected goals figures looked respectable, courtesy of Abbosbek Fayzullayev’s goal, which was valued at 0.98. Few will ever receive a better chance to become a national hero.
